Without military assistance from the United States, Ukraine will have enough weaponry to continue fighting at the current pace until summer. After that, Ukrainian forces will be unable to deploy some of their most advanced weapon systems.
This was stated by current and former Western officials to the Wall Street Journal.
Who among the allies has provided the most assistance to UkraineOn the infographic – who among the allies has offered the most military, humanitarian, and financial support to Ukraine since the beginning of 2022. The arms supplies approved by the Joe Biden administration will be sufficient for Ukraine to maintain its current fighting pace at least until mid-year, according to Celeste Wallander, a former senior Pentagon official.
A senior aide to Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the cessation of U.S. military aid would be the worst-case scenario, meaning Ukraine would have to ramp up its military production and seek more assistance from European partners.
Europe is preparing to attempt to fill the gap. In 2024, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Norway collectively provided Ukraine with approximately $25 billion in military assistance – according to European officials, this is more than what the U.S. has sent. There has been a significant increase in artillery shell production in Europe, and discussions are underway to boost aid to $30 billion.
Ukraine is also relying on its own robust defense industry, which now produces weapons valued at $30 billion annually.
Overall, according to one Western official, Ukraine currently produces or finances about 55% of its military equipment. The U.S. supplies approximately 20%, while Europe contributes 25%.
However, some supplies from the U.S., including advanced air defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range rocket artillery, will be virtually impossible to replace in the short term. Europe lacks sufficient quantities of such weaponry and, in some cases, the manufacturing capacity.
According to officials and analysts, once U.S. stockpiles are depleted, Ukraine's ability to strike at long ranges and protect its rear positions will be compromised.
Analysts believe the most significant issue will be the lack of American air defense systems, including the Patriot. The loss of the U.S. Army's tactical missile system, ATACMS, will also be a blow.
As President Volodymyr Zelensky stated, the full-scale war has cost Ukraine $320 billion. The claim that the U.S. has provided $500 billion in aid is inaccurate.
He has also expressed doubt about Ukraine's ability to hold its positions on the front lines without U.S. support.