How long can Ukraine survive without U.S. weapons? A critical timeframe has been identified.

Ukraine has enough weaponry stockpiles to sustain its military operations at the current pace only until mid-2025 without U.S. military support. Once American supplies are depleted, the Ukrainian armed forces will lose their ability to strike at long distances and effectively defend their rear positions.

This was reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing current and former Western officials.

"We might hold out for perhaps six months to a year to give Europe time to ramp up ammunition production," noted Mykola Beleskov, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian charity "Come Back Alive." According to him, Ukraine may incur certain losses and possibly lose some territory, but "we have no choice but to fight, despite the difficulties."

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba emphasized in a comment to POLITICO: "The most powerful lever of influence that Trump has over Ukraine is the threat of withholding weapons supply. In my opinion, we have about six months before we really start feeling a shortage of weapons on the front lines."

Europe Prepares to Compensate for Potential Shortages

European countries are already actively preparing for a possible halt in American aid. In 2024, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Norway collectively provided Ukraine with around $25 billion in military assistance — more than the U.S. contributed that year. The EU has significantly increased artillery shell production and is currently discussing the possibility of raising EU aid to $30 billion this year.

According to the Kiel Institute, from February 2022 to the end of 2024, the U.S. has spent €64 billion on military support for Ukraine, while Europe, including the UK and Norway, has contributed nearly €62 billion.

At the same time, Ukraine has established a robust defense industry, currently producing weapons worth $30 billion annually, which is six times more than in 2023. In 2024, Ukraine produced about 1.5 million drones, which have become a primary form of defense along the front lines. This year, according to Ukrainian officials, plans are in place to manufacture 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones.

The biggest challenge, according to analysts, will be the lack of American-made air defense systems, particularly Patriot systems, which can intercept Russian ballistic missiles. Europe simply does not produce enough of these systems, and in some cases, does not have them at all.

Earlier, Telegrаph also reported how many targets were destroyed in the skies over Ukraine over the three years of war, referring to tens of thousands of various weaponry.