The U.S. National Security Advisor, Michael Waltz, stated that Europe must take responsibility for Ukraine's security without U.S. involvement. President Trump mentioned that the U.S. could provide financial assistance to Ukraine in exchange for its rare earth materials. The American president had a conversation with Putin.
During the Munich Security Conference, Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. All these statements were analyzed by experts from the Kyiv Security Forum.
Experts believe that the recent comments from President Trump and his National Security Advisor Michael Waltz indicate a preference for a quick temporary ceasefire without outlining a concrete plan to end the war. Therefore, retired General Kellogg refuted claims that such a plan would be presented.
The idea of U.S. cooperation in rare earth metals and minerals should be viewed as evidence of the new U.S. administration's business-like approach to addressing geopolitical issues. This statement is aimed both at the Republican Party electorate, suggesting that assistance to Ukraine will be exchanged for its resources, and at potential long-term economic cooperation.
Regarding Russia's actions, KSF experts expressed the opinion that the Kremlin intentionally does not confirm contacts with Trump to diminish both the significance of such contacts and the strength of the new U.S. administration. The Kremlin's message that they are not afraid of Trump has become a key media moment in Russia.
KSF notes that no breakthrough ideas should be expected in Munich. There will be no plan to end the war created by the U.S., EU, and Ukraine. Additionally, there will be no approved format for negotiations (which the Kremlin is only willing to agree to on the condition of accepting Ukraine's capitulation terms).
Without the United States, it is impossible to provide real security guarantees for Ukraine. This is known by the U.S., the EU, and Moscow.
According to KSF experts, Kellogg's visit to Ukraine could have an impact if a new aid package is announced, as well as decisions made in Ramstein (where the U.S. transferred the presidency to the United Kingdom).
"The probability of continued hostilities in the next six months is assessed at nine out of ten (the same as the previous assessment), while the risks of unfavorable negotiation conditions for Ukraine are rated at eight out of ten (one point higher than our previous estimate)," the report states.