Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his evening address on November 29, specifically mentioned his conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, which focused on enhancing the air defense of our military, as well as "comprehensive defense support and the acceleration of the transfer of Mirage aircraft."
On one hand, this announcement can be viewed solely as a reminder regarding the transfer of these aircraft to us, while on the other hand, it emphasizes that work on the Mirage for the Defense Forces of Ukraine is indeed being actively pursued, and soon we may see another type of fighter jet in the arsenal of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the very least, this message serves as a reason to revisit the timeline of public statements and media publications concerning these aircraft over the past few months.
First and foremost, it should be noted that Emmanuel Macron officially announced the transfer of Mirage 2000-5 to Ukraine on June 6, at which time a timeframe of six months was announced, considering the training processes (i.e., approximately by December of this year). Then, in mid-July, the French Ambassador to Ukraine Gael Veyssiere reported much shorter timelines for the delivery of the aircraft - specifically, a matter of a few months, but it seems this was either a slip of the tongue or plain PR.
In October, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu provided more cautious forecasts, noting that the Mirage for Ukraine should be expected in the first quarter of 2025 - which means the delivery of the aircraft could be extended until the end of March, including the need for training.
Additionally, it is worth mentioning that if initially the media reported only three Mirage 2000-5 that were set to be received by our Air Force, in November information emerged indicating that this number is expected to increase at least twofold - to six aircraft.
Subsequently, the French indicated that in order to facilitate the delivery of this number of aircraft, they need to accelerate production from 3 to 4 Rafale per month. This, in turn, could negatively impact timelines, as it was later acknowledged in France that the situation with Rafale is not very promising, given that only nine out of the planned 15 aircraft were delivered this year. On the other hand, this could be seen as a form of public communication for self-soothing, suggesting that the French are monitoring the combat readiness of their air forces, and the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine should not affect this factor.
If we are discussing the acceleration of the transfer of Mirage to Ukraine, it is likely to involve a period of one to one and a half months, and with positive forecasts, the aircraft could be integrated into the Armed Forces of Ukraine's Air Force during January-February. However, as practice often shows, timelines in such cases usually shift "to the right," rather than "to the left."