In its latest update, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the Russian cargo ship Sparta is currently drifting off the coast of Portugal. This ship was supposed to head to the shores of Syria to evacuate Russian troops, but its power unit has malfunctioned.
Additionally, our intelligence sources provide intriguing information – rumors are circulating among the Russian contingent in Syria that, due to a decision by the new authorities, they will have to leave the country by January 20, 2025.
This report suggests that the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is also considering the possibility that Russia plans to transfer its forces from Syria to Libya.
It is also worth noting that, according to data published by Western ship spotters, a large landing ship of project 11711 "Ivan Gren" from the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy has already entered the Mediterranean Sea. Earlier reports indicated that this landing ship is being sent by Russia to evacuate its troops from Syria.
Regarding the landing ship project 11711 "Ivan Gren," it is important to add that this vessel can carry either up to 300 marines or up to 30 trucks or up to 13 tanks based on its standard load.
At the same time, it should be noted that the fate of possibly the most crucial component of the Russian contingent in Syria – combat aviation – remains unknown.
We can refer to a video posted on social media on December 18, 2024, where an unknown drone managed to fly unobstructed around the "Khmeimim" airbase, which still houses Russian forces.
This video shows approximately seven Su-24M bombers, four or five Su-35 or Su-30 aircraft, around three Mi-8 helicopters, and two each of Ka-52 and Mi-24/35, totaling up to 18 aircraft.
A latest view on the Russian Khmeimim Air Base in Syria from a UAV. Visible are Ilyushin Il-76 cargo planes of the Syrian and Russian Air Force, Russian Su-24M/Su-34/Su-35S warplanes parked in hangars, as well as air defense & radar positions. There's also notable activity of… pic.twitter.com/rNiIPrCwEg — Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) December 12, 2024
In this context, a question arises not only about where Russia will relocate this "exposed" group of up to 18 aircraft – back to its territory or to a new base in Libya.
There is also the question of where the Russians have already "put" their Su-25 attack aircraft, which were observed being used for strikes against Syrian opposition forces, and also – when Russia withdrew its Su-34s from Syria, the presence of which at the beginning of this year was documented in The Military Balance 2024.