The report titled "Defense: Preparation and Use of Armed Forces: Air Forces" has been published on the official website of the French National Assembly (parliament), outlining the plans and prospects for the French Air Force in the upcoming year of 2025. It specifically includes details regarding defense support for Ukraine in the areas of air defense systems, aviation strike capabilities, and the future transfer of aircraft.
Even if some facts mentioned below have been previously known or if the phrasing on certain issues appears too general, the key point is that all of these matters are recorded in an official document from France.
The aforementioned document can be read at this link, from which we will highlight the following points. To begin with, it confirms previously disclosed information that France is prepared to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with six Mirage 2000F-5, but for this delivery to take place, the French defense industry must increase the production rate of new Rafale aircraft.
Additionally, there are details regarding the supply of air defense systems, mentioning in general terms the provision of two Crotale NG missile systems and one SAMP/T complex (in collaboration with Italy). Notably, there is a specific indication that "the replacement of these systems for operational capabilities (presumably for the French Air Force) should not occur before 2027."
At the same time, there is an interesting note stating that "the year 2025 is expected to be decisive for the replenishment of SCALP-EG missiles allocated for partners in Ukraine." At this point, one can exercise cautious optimism and interpret this phrasing as France's readiness to increase the supply of air-launched cruise missiles to Ukraine in the upcoming year.
Regarding the AASM Hammer guided bombs, it is detailed that this year France is set to deliver 600 of these munitions to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while in 2025, the production rate of such bombs is expected to double, reaching 1200 units within the year.
Furthermore, the previously mentioned document also included references to the current production rates of Rafale aircraft, which do not appear promising for the French side.
Specifically, the plan for 2024 included 15 aircraft (of which two were due to unmet obligations from 2023), yet only nine Rafales have actually been delivered, indicating that the plan was not fulfilled once again. The plan for 2025 remains at the same 15 Rafale aircraft, and it is currently uncertain whether its execution will affect the timeline for the transfer of Mirages to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.